ChatGPT’s Growth Is Stalling, and That’s a Real Problem for OpenAI’s IPO Plans

ChatGPT had a hell of a run, but the numbers are starting to tell a different story. Sensor Tower dropped some sobering data this week: uninstalls of the ChatGPT app jumped 132 percent year-over-year in April. And March was even worse — a staggering 413 percent spike compared to the same month last year. That spike came right after OpenAI announced its partnership with the Pentagon back in February, and it’s hard not to connect the dots.

To be clear, ChatGPT is still adding users. But the rate of growth is cooling off fast. In January, monthly active users were up 168 percent year-over-year. By April, that figure had dropped to just 78 percent. That’s still impressive for most apps, but for a product that was practically a cultural phenomenon a year ago, it’s a serious deceleration. And when you’re OpenAI, a company reportedly considering an IPO, investors are going to look at these trends and ask hard questions.

The Pentagon deal is the obvious lightning rod. OpenAI has been trying to walk a line between commercial success and its founding mission of safe, broadly beneficial AI. Partnering with the military was always going to piss off a chunk of its user base — especially the privacy-conscious and anti-war crowd that made up a big part of early adopters. The uninstall data suggests that backlash is real, not just Twitter noise.

But it’s not just about politics. Competition is heating up. Google’s Gemini, Anthropic’s Claude, and a swarm of open-source models are all eating into ChatGPT’s mindshare. Users who were curious a year ago now have options, and some are finding that other chatbots handle certain tasks better or feel less constrained. ChatGPT is still the biggest name in town, but being the biggest doesn’t mean much if the growth curve flattens right before you try to go public.

I’ve been saying for a while that the AI hype cycle was due for a correction. The first wave of users was driven by novelty — “let me ask ChatGPT to write a poem about my cat” energy. That’s fading. The second wave, which OpenAI needs for sustained growth, requires real utility and trust. The Pentagon deal doesn’t exactly scream “trust us with your data.”

Sensor Tower’s data also shows that while ChatGPT’s user base is still “substantially larger” than its competitors, the gap is narrowing. That’s the kind of trend that makes underwriters nervous. An IPO in this environment would need a narrative that convinces investors the slowdown is temporary — maybe a new model launch, a killer enterprise feature, or a pivot to something else entirely. But right now, the story is about deceleration and user churn.

I’m not saying OpenAI is doomed. The company has deep pockets, a talented team, and a product that’s still miles ahead in brand recognition. But the numbers don’t lie: the rocket ship is losing altitude. If I were on their board, I’d be pushing for a serious re-think of how they balance growth, ethics, and public perception before taking that IPO roadshow on the road.